Thursday, 23 January 2014

England and Wales crime falls to lowest level in 32 years .... Are they pulling our tadgers or what??

Latest crime figures - still cooking the books!
England and Wales crime falls to lowest level in 32 years

You can stop laughing now! Read on mcduff....

While the headline figure is down, detailed police recorded crime figures show ‘signs of increasing upward pressure’ in specific austerity-related crimes.

Crime has fallen by an unexpected 10% over the last year, with 8m offences estimated by the authoritative Crime Survey of England and Wales – the lowest level since it started 32 years ago.

The fall in crime in the 12 months to September 2013 is across most types of offences including a fall in the murder rate to 542 homicides recorded by the police, 11 fewer than the previous year. Overall violent crime is down by 13%, according to the survey.
But the detailed police recorded crime figures also show “signs of increasing upward pressure” in specific austerity-related crimes.
These include a 4% rise in shoplifting, which is up by more than 11,000 to 313,693 offences. The police recorded crime figures also show a 7% rise in “theft from the person” which includes pickpocketing up to 110,408 offences.
The rise in shoplifting was seen in 29 of the 43 police force areas, with the largest increases in West Midlands (up 18%), Merseyside (14%) and West Yorkshire (12%). In evidence of a new north-south divide shoplifting in London actually fell by 1%.
Are they pulling our tadgers or what?

Over all the years I have been analysing recorded crime, crime in general and detections, I have less faith in the Crime Survey than I do in recorded crime.

Whilst I believe the numbers are probably closer to the real picture with the survey at 8million crimes per year, one simple question has always screamed out at me…

If the survey only deals with the responses from 50,000 respondents, many of whom were not actually victims of crime, how the heck do they arrive at any sort of national figure other than by “best guessing?”

•In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, statistics based on police recorded crime data have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. The full assessment report can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website. Data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales continue to be badged as National Statistics.

•ONS will continue to publish and provide commentary on police recorded crime data pending consultation with users about their needs for such data in the light of the forthcoming inspection of data integrity being carried out by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary. Further information on the interpretation of recorded crime data is provided in the User Guide to Crime Statistics for England and Wales.

•Latest figures from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimate that there were 8.0 million crimes against households and resident adults in the previous twelve months, based on interviews with a nationally representative sample** in the year ending September 2013. This was down 10% compared with the previous year’s survey, and is the lowest estimate over the history of the survey, which began in 1981. *** (THIS IS THE CRUX OF IT! A representative sample? 50,000 respondents enables them to guess at 8 million??. That is like in my business, asking 10 insurance brokers how many policies they think they will sell, then basing my actual sales performance on that instead of the REAL sales my 2,000 broker customers will actually sell).

Politicians! One system is shown to be bent, so the back up one was always considered more reliable anyway!!

•The reduction of crime measured by the CSEW was led by statistically significant decreases in both household (vehicle and property related) crime and personal (theft from the person and violent) crime. Household crime was down 10%, while personal crime was down 9%.
(That’s not what recorded crime is indicating!!)

•The police recorded 3.7 million offences in the year ending September 2013, a decrease of 3% compared with the previous year.

3.7million vs 8million… Go on lads, have a guess, any old number will do, the public haven't got a clue anyway we've been fudging for so long!

BOTH of these systems are absolutely useless and worthless measures of real crime in England & Wales. The fact is the service has lost much of its credibility and the survey is just that, a survey, and a pretty pathetic representative one at that.

Scrap both of them. Wipe the slate clean. Admit the books have not only been cooked, they’re burnt to a cinder, which is all they’re good for, fuel for the fire.

Start again, afresh, with all the incentives to manipulate removed. Score no points for fallacious crime reductions and detection increases. Let’s get to the truth once and for all. Only by arriving at that juncture will PCC’s , the Government, Police leaders and we, the tax payers know more precisely what resources are actually needed to provide an adequate policing solution. Anything less remains a fudge with which politicians will continue their mantra that the service can achieve more with less.


Crime Analyst said...


National policing lead on crime statistics, Chief Constable Jeff Farrar, responds to crime statistics published today (January 23, 2014).

National policing lead on crime statistics, Chief Constable Jeff Farrar said:

“It is encouraging that the number of crimes reported to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) has fallen by 10 per cent when compared with last year. This is the lowest estimate over the entire history of the survey, which began in 1981 and is now less than half of its peak in 1995."

“There has also been a three per cent fall in police recorded crime and it is positive that both measures continue to indicate that crime is falling across the country, and that the gap between the two sets of figures continues to narrow.

“The reduction of crime shown in the CSEW includes significant reductions in vehicle and property crime, alongside personal crime. While there has been an increase in the amount of shoplifting and theft from the person recorded by police, there were reductions across the main categories of police recorded crime – such as a nine per cent decrease in the number of offences involving knives and sharp instruments, and a five per cent decrease in the number of offences involving firearms.

“The number of sexual offences recorded by police has increased by 17 per cent. Many of these are historical offences, recorded in the wake of multiple high-profile cases which have encouraged victims to come forward.

“We would always encourage anyone who has suffered abuse, no matter how much time has passed, to report it and have their voice heard. It’s also incredibly important that anyone who has been through the trauma of abuse or sexual assault is provided with support for what they’ve been through.

“Fraud has continued to be a focus for police forces across England and Wales, and the service recently introduced a more efficient centralised crime recording system. This move towards centralised recording is considered to be responsible, in part, for the 34 per cent increase in fraud offences recorded by the police in the year ending September 2013, when compared to the same period in 2012.

“Accurate crime statistics are not only essential in holding police accountable for the work they do in the ongoing fight against crime, but also vital in ensuring that police officers and staff are deployed to the right place at the right time.

“It is disappointing that the UK Statistics Authority has decided to remove the National Statistics designation from police recorded crime statistics as this has come at a time when the service is working to make crime statistics more transparent, more accountable and assure the public of the figures’ integrity.

“However, the police service, supported by HMIC, the Home Office, the Office of National Statistics, the College of Policing and the Crime Statistics Advisory Committee will continue to work hard in order to achieve accuracy and consistency in recorded crime in order to see the National Statistics designation restored. “

Hardly surprising ACPO are clinging on to the reduction in crime mantra based on the equally flawed Crime Survey.

For heavens sakes Ladies & Gentlemen of ACPO, find a spine somewhere, admit you haven't really got a clue whether crime is up, down, diagonal or side-ways. How could you know? Recorded crime is fiddled mercilessly. The crime survey is a pathetic representation of real life. Whilst you continue with this obfuscation and deceit, you will NEVER regain public confidence. ACPO : Always Create Public Outrage ... Well you've succeeded again guys!

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