|Latest crime figures - still cooking the books!|
You can stop laughing now! Read on mcduff....
While the headline figure is down, detailed police recorded crime figures show ‘signs of increasing upward pressure’ in specific austerity-related crimes.
Crime has fallen by an unexpected 10% over the last year, with 8m offences estimated by the authoritative Crime Survey of England and Wales – the lowest level since it started 32 years ago.
The fall in crime in the 12 months to September 2013 is across most types of offences including a fall in the murder rate to 542 homicides recorded by the police, 11 fewer than the previous year. Overall violent crime is down by 13%, according to the survey.
But the detailed police recorded crime figures also show “signs of increasing upward pressure” in specific austerity-related crimes.
These include a 4% rise in shoplifting, which is up by more than 11,000 to 313,693 offences. The police recorded crime figures also show a 7% rise in “theft from the person” which includes pickpocketing up to 110,408 offences.
The rise in shoplifting was seen in 29 of the 43 police force areas, with the largest increases in West Midlands (up 18%), Merseyside (14%) and West Yorkshire (12%). In evidence of a new north-south divide shoplifting in London actually fell by 1%.
Over all the years I have been analysing recorded crime, crime in general and detections, I have less faith in the Crime Survey than I do in recorded crime.
Whilst I believe the numbers are probably closer to the real picture with the survey at 8million crimes per year, one simple question has always screamed out at me…
If the survey only deals with the responses from 50,000 respondents, many of whom were not actually victims of crime, how the heck do they arrive at any sort of national figure other than by “best guessing?”
•In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, statistics based on police recorded crime data have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. The full assessment report can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website. Data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales continue to be badged as National Statistics.
•ONS will continue to publish and provide commentary on police recorded crime data pending consultation with users about their needs for such data in the light of the forthcoming inspection of data integrity being carried out by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary. Further information on the interpretation of recorded crime data is provided in the User Guide to Crime Statistics for England and Wales.
•Latest figures from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimate that there were 8.0 million crimes against households and resident adults in the previous twelve months, based on interviews with a nationally representative sample** in the year ending September 2013. This was down 10% compared with the previous year’s survey, and is the lowest estimate over the history of the survey, which began in 1981. *** (THIS IS THE CRUX OF IT! A representative sample? 50,000 respondents enables them to guess at 8 million??. That is like in my business, asking 10 insurance brokers how many policies they think they will sell, then basing my actual sales performance on that instead of the REAL sales my 2,000 broker customers will actually sell).
Politicians! One system is shown to be bent, so the back up one was always considered more reliable anyway!!
•The reduction of crime measured by the CSEW was led by statistically significant decreases in both household (vehicle and property related) crime and personal (theft from the person and violent) crime. Household crime was down 10%, while personal crime was down 9%.
(That’s not what recorded crime is indicating!!)
•The police recorded 3.7 million offences in the year ending September 2013, a decrease of 3% compared with the previous year.
3.7million vs 8million… Go on lads, have a guess, any old number will do, the public haven't got a clue anyway we've been fudging for so long!
BOTH of these systems are absolutely useless and worthless measures of real crime in England & Wales. The fact is the service has lost much of its credibility and the survey is just that, a survey, and a pretty pathetic representative one at that.
Scrap both of them. Wipe the slate clean. Admit the books have not only been cooked, they’re burnt to a cinder, which is all they’re good for, fuel for the fire.
Start again, afresh, with all the incentives to manipulate removed. Score no points for fallacious crime reductions and detection increases. Let’s get to the truth once and for all. Only by arriving at that juncture will PCC’s , the Government, Police leaders and we, the tax payers know more precisely what resources are actually needed to provide an adequate policing solution. Anything less remains a fudge with which politicians will continue their mantra that the service can achieve more with less.